Social Leverage Letter | Issue #29

Improving Feedback, Handling Anxiety, Gratitude, Thriving in Chaos, and Where We are in the Current Cycle

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“The interest is up and the stock market’s down. And you only get mugged if you go downtown.” 

Hank Williams Jr.

UPFRONT

This month is the two year anniversary of the start of the global COVID pandemic. Just when it seems there's a light at the end of the tunnel, Europe erupts into chaos with Russian invading Ukraine.

Since late last year, most US technology stocks have made the ‘great roundtrip’ - giving back nearly all of their gains and more. Many are down 70 to 90 percent from all-time highs. Energy prices are up, inflation is up, and interest rates are starting to rise. In this week's video, Howard gives insight into what some of this might mean to the private markets, and how we might want to think about tech moving forward.

It’s hard to predict what the future looks like from here. We’re all on the edge, or so it seems. In this issue we’re taking a look at how to improve our forecasting with a recent paper from Michael Mauboussin. And if that doesn’t help, we’ll learn how to not give a f*ck from best-selling author Mark Manson.

Keep calm and carry on.

  • READING: Feedback - Information as the Basis for Improvement

  • READING: The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck

  • LISTENING: Garry Tan - Unwrapping the Gift

  • WATCHING: Market Insights - Catching up with Howard Lindzon

  • WHAT ELSE WE'RE READING

  • JOB BOARD

READING

Michael Mauboussin

"If you want to build an excellent, repeatable process you need to start with having the right people. You then need to train them to be effective, figure out how you should deploy their skills, and institute a policy of practice."

Mark Manson

Mark's thought provoking book, The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck, offers a unique perspective on handling adversity. The potty mouth was for effect; it seemed to work with over 8 million copies sold. And it all started with a single blog post. The bottom line is, we have a choice about the things we care about, and the things we don't care about. 

From our blog

They say your brain can't process gratitude and anger at the same time. It's true. 

LISTENING

Invest Like the Best

“I thrive on chaos. I actually thrive. I just love an ambiguous situation because that's where I can start putting structure in and figure things out.”

Garry Tan - Unwrapping the Gift - [Invest Like the Best, EP. 267]

Listen to this episode from Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy on Spotify. My guest today is Garry Tan, founder and managing partner of early-stage venture firm, Initialized Capital. Before starting Initialized, Garry was a partner at Y Combinator, employee number 10 at Palantir, and co-founder of YC backed blog platform Posterous. Our discussion covers what’s missing in the investment world, how to best systematize venture investments, and what he learned from Paul Graham. Please enjoy my conversation with Garry Tan.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.   -----   This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus is the new digital hub for market intelligence. The Tegus platform empowers Investors and Corporate Development teams to invest smarter by pairing best-in-class technology with the highest quality user-generated content and data. Find out why a majority of the top firms are using Tegus on a daily basis. Head to tegus.co/patrick for your free trial.   -----   This episode is brought to you by Lemon.io. The team at Lemon.io has built a network of Eastern European developers ready to pair with fast-growing startups. We have faced challenges hiring engineering talent for various projects - and Lemon.io offered developers for one-off projects, developers for full start to finish product development, or developers that could be add-ons to the existing team. Check out lemon.io/patrick to learn more.   -----   Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:02:45] - [First question] - Why he’s interested by software and the global brain [00:06:23] - How the shift from global to local manifests in his investing and company activities [00:11:42] - Ways to increase throughput that would benefit everybody in the investing world  [00:17:13] - What software he would build if there were no limitations and what happens at the systems level of securing deals at Initialize  [00:23:33] - Why there is no objective application process for early-stage capital and how much human judgment we can remove from approving funding [00:26:49] - Shared characteristics amongst new inventions he finds favorable  [00:31:49] - Whether he’s able to evaluate an idea without a prototype [00:33:33] - Why travel planning software was the worst idea of 2012 and what he sees as the bad idea of today [00:36:06] - The most common reasons for failure in these types of businesses [00:39:07] - Is big enabling technology shifts what manifests in successful outcomes? [00:40:37] - The role of media and how it intersects with investing [00:44:29] - What he attributes to the success of his firm and thriving in chaos [00:48:11] - Would he press a button that would have made his childhood easy, and whether he’s met founders who haven’t come across adversity in their lives  [00:50:00] - His thoughts on the world today via the lens of his portfolio [00:53:12] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him   

WATCHING

YouTube | AllStarCharts

The 'great roundtrip' in public tech stocks has yet to spill over into venture. Will it? Howard talks about this, where we are in the current cycle, and what people get wrong about web3.

WHAT WE'RE READING

Here's what caught our eye over the past week.

JOB BOARD

Explore openings at our portfolio companies: 

Featured Jobs:

Check out all of our portfolio companies at Social Leverage.

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